The Morning Delivery

Hurricane Sandy Resource Page

According to the latest from the Associated Press , Hurricane Sandy, a Category 1 hurricane already blamed for 69 deaths in the Caribbean, was 110 miles southeast of Atlantic City with sustained winds at 90 mph and is expected to blow ashore in New Jersey early this evening, sooner than previously expected.

The Washington Post reported that federal offices in the nation’s capital will be closed on Tuesday for the second consecutive day because of Hurricane Sandy.  Non-emergency employees will be granted administrative leave; emergency employees will be required to report to work as usual.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently issued a news release on what to expect in terms of coastal change during the storm, primarily in the form of beach erosion.

According to Vic Hines, chief of communications (Eastern Studies) from USGS, the likelihoods of erosion and overwash increased for all areas. Approximately 95 percent of the coast between the Eastern Shore of Virginia and the south shore of Long Island, NY, is very likely to experience dune erosion.  Overwash is very likely along 50 percent of the Delmarva and NJ sandy beaches and 12 percent of the Long Island barriers.

As Sandy begins its violent path inland, a worthwhile online tool featured by USGS is a  a Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide Mapper which allows users to look at what real-time storm sensors and streamgages are reading in order to track water levels before and after the storm.

USGS additionally features a splendid resource page, highlighting key USGS links for those wanting to track what's happening with water levels; the page also includes the latest information on storm-related activities, and the most recently issued news releases.

In order to keep up on the latest news developments on Hurricane Sandy, readers should keep in mind, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have torn down their pay walls for at least the next couple of days (Monday and Tuesday) so that readers can stayed informed on the latest developments.

The New York Times, by the way, features a tremendous interactive storm tracker for keeping informed on the latest weather information from Albany to Washington D.C..; while the Wall Street Journal  is doing an equally superb job  streaming  the latest photos, tweets, and other updated hurricane information. from their reporters and photographers out in the trenches. And The Washington Post, not to be outdone, is featuring  The Grid a special presentation of tweets and photos about the storm.

Other Resources related to Hurricane Sandy to keep in mind.

• The Red Cross: Is featuring a Hurricane App in which from your mobile phone, you can call "**REDCROSS" (**73327677) and they’ll send you a link to download the app to your phone. Red Cross additionally has a ``Safe and Well’’ feature in which residents can register in order to let loved ones know their safe.

• For the latest hurricane advisories, check in on the National Hurricane Center home page.

• The Google Crisis Response Team has launched a Hurricane Sandy map  to help online users follow the trajectory of the storm.

• NASA provides the latest storm image and data, which includes Hurricane Sandy images, videos, public advisory alerts, and Sandy images on Flickr.

• As usual, the Weather Channel has the most up-to-date developments at their Hurricane Central    with frequent updates at Twitter @TWC_hurricane. The Weather Channel has also rolled out an interactive map and radar at Weather Underground . In addition, online users can receive severe weather alerts in their area on their mobile devices.

• NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zone Finder

• NJ.Com lists key contacts: phone numbers, websites, and social media for Morris County, NJ, which is located about 25 miles west of New York City. 

• Hurricane Sandy By the Numbers  from U.S. News on NBCNews.com

• How to Prepare for a Hurricane: Ready.gov 

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]
October 29, 2012

 

U.S. Presence in Afghanistan: 10-Year Scorecard

Dexter Filkins, The New Yorker

Lara Logan, CBS News

Since the Koran burning last month, U.S. troops urinating on the bodies of fallen Taliban fighters, and the killing of Afghan civilians in Kandahar by Staff Sergeant Robert Bales, seven Americans and two Britons have been killed by Afghan forces in Afghanistan, only compounding American voters sense of urgency to get out of this troublesome region, the sooner the better.

A New York Times poll  published Monday showed just how disillusioned Americans have become over the war, with 69 percent of the respondents saying we shouldn’t be at war in Afghanistan, a marked increase from 53 percent just four months ago.

The poll also found that 68 percent thought the fighting was going “somewhat badly” or “very badly,” compared with 42 percent who held such a belief in November.

After 10 years of military engagement in Afghanistan, with a majority of U.S. troops scheduled to be withdrawn by the end of the 2014, many are beginning to question what has been accomplished in the region and whether the Afghans will be able to go it alone once the U.S. passes the baton to them less than two years from now.

If you happened to peek in on the Charlie Rose show recently (March 12th) and listened to the harsh assessment of the progress made in Afghanistan as put forward by Dexter Filkins, of the 'New Yorker' magazine, Lara Logan of CBS News, Jere Van Dyk of CBS News, Seth Jones of the RAND Corporation and Zalmay Khalilzad of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, you might have come away not only disappointed by the lack of progress, but also deeply cynical wondering exactly what the U.S. forces have been doing in Afghanistan for the last 10 years?

Filkins told Rose that as of last year, there was one (yes, you heard right, exactly one) Afghan battalion that can operate independently.  ``It’s fiction to believe’’, Filkins told Mr. Rose, ``that the U.S. can leave Afghans to fight and function for themselves….what we’re really talking about is another decade before Afghans can operate independently.’’

And with the Afghan army unable to stand on its own two feet once the U.S. pulls out at the end of 2014, civil war will in all likelihood break out, most of Rose guests agreed.

If the U.S. doesn’t leave some kind of U.S. forces behind after 2014, Zalmay Khalilzad of the Center for Strategic and International Studies is convinced that the U.S. might only have to go back again. ``We have seen this movie before’’, Khalilzad said. ``Extremist groups will come and we (the U.S) would have to bomb Afghanistan from afar.’’

During the interview, Lara Logan of CBS News made the most compelling argument that it doesn’t really matter what has happened or hasn’t happened inside Afghanistan, the biggest problem is that sanctuaries still exist inside Pakistan, and according to Logan, ``the U.S. hasn’t removed the fundamental condition which gave rise to 9/11.’’

Logan additionally argued, persuasively I might add, that even 10 more years in Afghanistan would be counterproductive since it will more than likely only produce more isolated incidents, similar to the Koran burning and shooting of Afghan civilians. Those isolated incidents, Logan argues, albeit the exception rather than the rule, is nonetheless ``defining the U.S. image in the eyes of Afghans.’’ All the wells, schools and other infrastructure projects which have been built by the U.S. doesn’t matter, Logan says, `` because it doesn’t get reported.’’

So to hear Rose’s guests tell it, after 10 years, the U.S. has three huge problems remaining in Afghanistan: a dysfunctional (and corrupt) Afghan government, sanctuaries (extremists) remaining in Pakistan, and the Taliban just ``waiting to run out the clock’’, as Filkins described it, biding time, just waiting for the U.S. to withdraw so they can reclaim power in the region.

It was not a pretty picture as described by Mr. Rose’s guests.

Since the war is a decade old, I thought I would compile a statistical scorecard of the gains made by U.S. forces since the war began on October 7, 2001.

Bill Lucey
[email protected]
March 29, 2012

*****
10 year scorecard: U.S. Presence in Afghanistan

How much money has the U.S. spent on Operation Enduring Freedom?
$413.2 billion from the Department of Defense and $25.1 from USAID (current dollars).  There is also $4.2 billion in Veterans money devoted to Afghanistan to date, bringing the grand total to approximately $442.5 billion current dollars.

According to the Congressional Research Service, through the end of FY2011, the United States has provided over $67 billion in assistance to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban, of which about $39 billion has been to equip and train Afghan forces.

How many casualties has there been in Afghanistan?
Total Deaths: Afghanistan only-1,794; other locations-109 with 3 DOD civilian casualties, bringing the total to 1,906 as of March 28, 2012.

How many journalists have been killed in Afghanistan?
Since the Committee to Protect Journalists began tracking this, 24 journalists have been killed in Afghanistan.

What’s the total number of foreign forces in Afghanistan?

Approximately, 131.000, including about 90,000 U.S. and 40,500 non-U.S. partner forces. (U.S. total was: 25,000 in 2005; 16,000 in 2003; 5,000 in 2002 (International Security Assistance Force, ISAF); totals were: 12,000 in 2005; and 6,000 in 2003.) U.S. forces are deployed at 88 bases in Afghanistan.

How big is the Afghan National Army (ANA)?

As of January 2012, about 176, 350 with 195,000 planned by November 2012. There are about 2,000 trained per month. 5,300 are commando forces, who are trained by U.S. Special Forces. ANA privates are paid about $200 per month; while generals make about $750 per month.

What is the approximate size of the Afghan National Police (ANP?)

As of January 2012, about 143, 000, with goal of 157,000 by November 2012. 21,000 are Border Police; 3,800+ counter-narcotics police; 14,400 Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP).

How many members of Al Qaeda still remain in Afghanistan?

According to General Petraeus, as of April 2011, there were less than 100 or so with a small number of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

How many Taliban fighters are there in Afghanistan?

According to both U.S. military and Afghan estimates in mid-2011, up to 25,000, although General John Allen, the top US commander in Afghanistan, has gone on record as saying he believes the numbers are much lower. Other remaining factions include: 3,000-Haqqani and 1,000-Hikmatyar.

Approximately how many military attacks are there every day in Afghanistan?
Based on testimony from Department of Defense officials, there were more than 1,500 per month in 2010; compared to 800 per month in 2007; and 400 in 2005.

What’s the population of Afghanistan?
More than 28 million; the population of Kabul is 3 million, up from 500,000 in the Taliban era.

What is the literacy rate?
28% of population over 15 years of age: 43% of males; 12.6% of female.

What is the unemployment rate?
Unemployment rate is about 40%.

The percentage of Afghans who have access to health care?
65% with basic health services access-compared to 8% during Taliban era

Has the judicial or court system improved in recent years?
Since the fall of the Taliban, there have been 1,000 judges, including 200 women trained.

How many Afghans have access to electricity?
15%-20% of the population, with much of it imported from neighboring states.

How many cell phone subscribers?
About 6.5 million, up from negligible amounts during Taliban era.

Sources: CIA, The World Factbook; The Brookings Institution, Congressional Research Service, U.S. government official testimony.

Top 10 non-U.S. Donors to Afghanistan? ($ in millions)
Japan: 3,150
European Union 2,880
Asian Development Bank 2,270
Britain 2,220
World Bank 2,140
Germany 2,130
India 1,515
Canada 1,255
Netherlands 775
Norway 745
Source: Afghanistan Ministry of Finance: Development Cooperation Report, 2010.

Coalition Deaths by Country:
U.K.: 407
Canada: 158
France: 82
Germany: 53
Italy: 46
Denmark: 42
Poland: 35
Spain: 34
Australia: 32
Netherlands: 25
Turkey: 14
Romania: 19
Georgia: 10
NATO: 10
Norway: 10
Estonia: 9
Hungry: 7
Czech: 5
Sweden: 5
New Zealand: 5
Latvia: 3
Jordan: 2
Portugal: 2
Finland: 2
Albania: 1
Belgium: 1
Lithuania: 1
South Korea: 1
Source:  iCasualties.org (updated March 28, 2012)

Key Players in Afghanistan:
The Pashtuns
Ethnic Pashtuns (pronounced POSH-toons, sometimes referred to as Pathans—pah-TAHNS), as the largest single ethnicity, have historically asserted a “right to rule.” Pashtuns are about 42% of the population and, with few exceptions, have governed Afghanistan.
President Hamid  Karzai is a Durrani Pashtun. His cabinet and inner advisory circle has come to be progressively dominated by Pashtuns, both Ghilzai and Durrani, which has largely minimized the advisory input of the other communities.

The Tajiks
Tajiks are the second-most numerous community, composing an estimated 25% of the population, and are the core of the “Northern Alliance” grouping that is opposed to but often works amicably with Karzai.

The Hazaras
Many Pashtuns are said to be increasingly resentful of the Hazara Shiite minority (about 10% of the population) that is advancing economically and politically through education; the Hazaras have historically been looked down upon by the Pashtuns, who have tended to employ Hazaras as domestic workers and other lower and lower middle class occupations. These jealousies could have been a factor in the December 6, 2011, bombings of Hazaras in three cities, killing 60, while they were visiting their mosques to celebrate the Shiite holy day of Ashura. A Pakistan-based militant group, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, claimed responsibility—possibly in an effort to stir up sectarian conflict in Afghanistan. Afghan Shiite officials said such tactics would not work, as there is no inclination toward sectarian conflict in Afghanistan.

The Uzbeks
Uzbeks, like the Hazaras, are about 10%. The Uzbek community is Sunni Muslim and speaks a language akin to Turkish, as well as Dari. The most well-known Uzbek leader in Afghanistan is Abdul Rashid Dostam, who was allied with Soviet occupation forces but later defected and helped bring down the Communist regime in Afghanistan in April 1992. Because of their alliance with the Soviet Union during the occupation period, many Uzbeks in Afghanistan are leftwing and highly secular.

Source: Congressional Research Service

***
Web Sites to Keep in Mind:

U.S. Casualties (updated daily)

DOD Dictionary of Military Terms

Military Casualty Information by Branch of Service: (Casualty information broken down by type and month)

Military Personnel Statistics

Casualty Timeline (by month) from October 7, 2001 Through March 5, 2012

U.S. and Coalition Casualties in Afghanistan (CNN)

Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission

Afghanistan International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)

Afghanistan Map: National Geographic Society:  

What Happens if the Federal Government Close Up Shop?

 

With both Republicans in Congress and President Obama deadlocked over the size of spending cuts in a new budget bill that will fund  the federal government through September 30th, the government will shutdown effective at midnight on Friday unless an agreement is reached soon.

Mr. Obama  has already indicated he won’t sign another stopgag measure like he has on two other occasions which contained a total of $10 billion in cuts. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) proposed another short-term spending bill on Monday, which includes a week-long measure containing $12 billion in cuts and funds the Defense Department through the end of the year.

At a press conference on Tuesday, Mr. Obama said “I can’t have my agencies making plans on two-week budgets,” “What we are not going to do’’ Obama made clear `` is once again put off something that should have gotten done months ago.”

As an indication of just how perilous the stalemate really is, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), told the Washington Post that the two sides are still miles apart and the chance of a long term agreement being worked this week isn’t very likely. Democrats, meanwhile, said that Mr. Boehner would be willing to strike a deal with $40 billion in budget cuts, a significant reduction from the $61 billion in cuts passed by the House in February.

But if an agreement isn’t reached and a government shutdown does take place, exactly how many federal employees will be affected; and how will the public at large be impacted through a loss of services?

While there are few details available on exactly how many employees will be affected in 2011, the two shutdowns in the mid-1990’s, might give some indication.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the first government shutdown which lasted five days, from November 13-19, 1995, resulted in the furlough of an estimated 800,000 federal employees.  The second shutdown, which lasted 21 days (December 15, 1995 through January 6, 1996), the longest in history, an estimated 284,000 federal employees were furloughed, while another 475,000 excepted federal employees continued to work without pay.

A number of unions, including the National Federation of Federal Employees, have grown concerned that the Obama administration has not given them a straight answer whether employees who continued to work without pay would receive retroactive pay once an agreement has been reached.  The Office of Personnel Management General Counsel Elaine Kaplan reportedly said it remains an "outstanding legal issue" that was never fully resolved after the 1995-1996 government shutdowns.  Back then, Congress voted to repay employees who worked during the shutdown.

Federal employees not subject to a furlough include:  Members of Congress,  the President, presidential appointees, certain legislative branch employees, and federal employees deemed “excepted’’ because they perform emergency work involving the safety of human life or the protection of property. These would in all likelihood include: military and national security personnel, air traffic controllers, law enforcement officers, food inspection, Medicare, veterans' health care emergency, disaster assistance workers and federal prison employees.

Members of the judiciary wouldn’t be affected either, since it draws used fee revenues and ``carryover’’ funds from previous years in order to continue the essential functions of hearing and deciding cases.  And according to the official publication of the U.S. courts, “all activities essential to maintain and support the exercise of the judicial power of the United States during a funding lapse would continue.’’

Congressional sources estimate that less than half of the 2.1 million federal workers subject to a shutdown would be forced off the job if the shutdown followed the same path blazed by Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

Areas likely to be closed during a shutdown, include:  all national parks (such as the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone National Park), museums (such as the Smithsonian in Washington D.C.)  and libraries.  During the 1995 shutdown, the National Park Service closed 368 sites, which resulted in the loss of seven million visitors and about $14.2 million per day in tourism revenue. During a shutdown, the public will be unable to renew passports, apply for new Social Security cards or even get tax refund checks.

Since the Postal Service is self-funded, service would continue uninterrupted.

Often overlooked is that the highway trust fund is governed by Congress' authorization of transportation programs. According to Moody’s Investors Service, ``at least 18 state highway programs and five mass transit agencies rely exclusively on federal funds to repay their bonds.’’ Moody’s additionally points out that local governments, universities, research institutions, hospitals, and health care systems, including airports and state housing finance agencies, may  also depend on federal funds in their budgets.

During the 1995 shutdown, it was reported that more than 400,000 veterans saw their disability benefits and pension claims delayed. Also during that time, while Social Security checks continued without interruption, payments were delayed as officials struggled to process them with such a limited staff.

Taken together, according to a Congressional Research Service report, six fairly lengthy funding gaps occurred from FY1977 to FY1980, ranging from 8 to 17 full days, while from FY1981 to FY1995, nine funding gaps occurred with durations of up to three full days, the exception being the 21-day shutdown in 1996 when Bill Clinton and the 104th Congress locked horns over budget policy.

Believe it or not, for years federal agencies continued operating under spending gaps, while waiting for the passage of annual appropriations acts or continuing resolutions. That all changed in 1981, when Attorney General Benjamin R. Civiletti issued two opinions that strictly interpreted the Antideficiency Act  as a law that prohibits federal officials from obligating funds before an appropriations measure has been enacted, except as authorized by law.

So while the prospect of an agreement before Friday looks grim; it should also be noted that neither President Obama or Mr. Boehner and the Republican Congress can afford the potential backlash from frustrated voters that will likely occur should there be a shutdown. A new Washington Post poll shows that 37 percent of voters would be blame the Obama administration, while the same percentage would fault the Republicans in Congress.

With neither side, then, standing to gain any political advantage from a shutdown, the odds are that a deal will be struck between Congress and the Obama administration in the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th minute.

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]
April 6, 2011

***
According to the Congressional Research Service, the following areas were affected during the 1996 government shutdown.

• Health:  New patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinical center; while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention discontinued disease surveillance; and hotline calls to NIH concerning diseases went answered

• Law Enforcement and Public Safety: Delays occurred in the processing of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and explosives applications by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms.

• Parks, Museums, and Monuments:  Closure of 368 National Park Service sites, with loss of tourism revenues to local communities; and closure of national museums and monuments (reportedly with an estimated loss of 2 million visitors).

• Visas and Passports:  Approximately 20,000-30,000 applications by foreigners for visas reportedly went unprocessed daily; 200,000 U.S. applications for passports reportedly went unprocessed; while U.S. tourist industries and airlines reportedly sustained millions of dollars in losses.

• American Veterans:  Several services were reduced, ranging from health and welfare to finance and travel.

• Federal Contractors: Of $18 billion in Washington, DC, area contracts, $3.7 billion (over 20%) reportedly were affected adversely by the funding lapse.

• Approximately 800,000 federal employees were unable to work.

• The U.S. Border Patrol canceled the recruitment and hiring of 400 new agents while delaying various delinquent child-support cases.

• Over 3,500 bankruptcies were suspended.

***

Web Sites to Keep in Mind:

Guidance and Information on Furloughs  U.S. Office of Personnel Management

State-by-State data on federal employees by agency, from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management

U.S. Census Bureau’s Consolidated Federal Funds Report –Federal spending by state and county, including salaries of federal workers.

Office of Management and Budget Circular

Key Dates of U.S. Presence in Iraq

 

 Making good on his campaign pledge to wind down the war in Iraq, President Obama during a speech to Disabled American Veterans on Monday in Atlanta, announced U.S. troops would be sliced to 50,000 from 144,000 by the end of the month with the remaining troops responsible for the training and supporting of Iraqi security forces.

According to Mr. Obama's timetable, all U.S. forces will be out of Iraq by the end of 2011.

What follows are key dates of the U.S. presence in Iraq

Key Dates of U.S. Presence in Iraq

• October 16, 2002: President Bush signs the authorization for use of military force against Iraq.

• June, 2004:  U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1546, reaffirming the authorization for the multinational force in Resolution 1511, while noting that its presence in Iraq “is at the request of the incoming Interim Government of Iraq.”

• May 1, 2007: President George W. Bush vetoed the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, H.R. 1591, partially due certain measure that would have limited the U.S. military role in Iraq.

• November 26, 2007:  U.S. President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Kamel Al-Maliki signed a ``Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship’’ between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America.

• November 17, 2008: U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari sign a withdrawal agreement, which among other provisions, calls for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces no later than December 31, 2011.

• January 1, 2009: The U.S. signs a security agreement with Iraq that requires all U.S. combat troops to move outside of cities by the end of June 2009, while all U.S. troops leave Iraq by December 31, 2011.

• February 27, 2009: President Obama delivers a speech to U.S. Marines at Camp Lejeune, stating the U.S. strategy in Iraq was complete and calls for U.S. troops to be reduced to 50,000 troops by August 31, 2010; and a complete withdrawal by December 31, 2011.

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]

Source: Congressional Research Service

Old Man Winter is Back: ``Do You Remember the Blizzard of....?''

For those who are nostalgia buffs, this might be your winter.

According to Accuweather, most of the nation should prepare themselves for the worst winter in 25 years, which might stretch well into March.

The artic cold blasts aren’t even sparing the South. The biting cold weather has led to homeless shelters being filled to capacity in Charlotte, N.C.; while The Miami Herald was reporting temperatures dipping into the 30’s, the coldest weather to hit South Florida in seven years, causing fears among citrus growers that crops might be irreparably damaged.

More cold temperatures will likely hit the Midwest through the weekend with Iowa, Missouri and Illinois predicted to receive 4-6 inches of fresh snow. 6 to 12 inches is expected over the mountains of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and across northwest Pennsylvania, and southwest New York.

What some observers find alarming is that most of the eastern seaboard of the United States, which is expected to receive another couple inches of snow this weekend, is recording unusually cold temperatures, not experienced since 1985.

However cold it gets this winter; and however much snow blankets our sidewalks, and covers are windshields, let’s just hope and pray we won’t meet anything like the ``Blizzard of 1888’’, the winter in which New York City (with over two million residents) found itself buried in five feet of snow, leaving 400 dead (including all the East Coast), most of whom were buried in head-high snowdrifts.

 What started out as one of the mildest winters on the East Coast in 17 years, turned suddenly violent, beginning on March 11, 1888, when the storm gathered momentum in New Jersey and rain turned into snow as the temperatures took a precipitous drop. The deluge of snow (50 inches) never settled down until March 14th.  The N.Y. Hearld reported ``the only lights to seen up and down a dreary waste of snow are those shone from the comfortable interiors of several saloons that are scattered along Broadway.’’

 In addition to the heavy snow, strong winds had reached 80 miles an hour (129 km); leaving a million residents along the East Coast trapped in their homes. Public transportation was paralyzed, schools were closed for days, and several funerals had to be cancelled, while a number of dead bodies discovered in snow drifts were kept in snow banks in the city.

 One noteworthy bête noire during the ``Blizzard of 1888’’, was writer John Whitaker Watson, who, oddly enough, composed a poem, ``Beautiful Snow’’ in 1887. A Connecticut newspaper offered a five cents reward for Watson’s arrest and conviction. A group from Hartford reportedly strung up the poet’s effigy in front of a hotel and pelted it with snowballs.

In November, 1950, deep snowdrifts battered Northeast Ohio (some referring to it as the ``Great Thanksgiving Storm’’) the worst storm to hit Cleveland in 37 years, a storm which claimed 11 lives in the Greater Cleveland area, 26 statewide. Most of the deaths were attributed to over exertion from shoveling snow.

 Cleveland Mayor Thomas A. Burke declared a state of emergency; while Ohio Governor Frank J. Lausche  called in the National Guard to bring order to the extensive looting taking place citywide with orders to ``shoot to kill’’ as looters made away with bread, milk, meats, baked goods, and liquor. Jewelry stores were also reportedly pillaged; one jewelry merchant claimed a loss of as much as $5,000 in merchandise.

 An equally serious concern was the loss of electricity, especially at St Luke’s Hospital in Cleveland, which was without power on November 25, 1950 from 9:45 a.m until 7 p.m that evening.  The Cleveland Press, the afternoon daily, wasn’t able to put a paper at all; The Plain Dealer, the morning newspaper, however, did manage to publish an eight page news section on November 26th and 27th.

 The storm of 1950 wasn’t limited to Ohio; it spread over 22 states and caused a total of 250 deaths, according to tallies compiled by The Associated Press.

In 1922, a blizzard turned tragic hit the nation’s capital in what became known as the ``Knickerbocker Storm’’, so named when 28 inches of snow caused the roof to collapse on the wood-beamed Knickerbocker Theater in Washington D.C. during the showing of the motion picture ``Get Rich Quick Wallingford’’, killing 98 patrons and injuring 130 others on January 28th.  Altogether, 100 people died from the storm in the D.C. area from January 27 through the 29th.

 New York City was pounded again, the day after Christmas in 1947, when a heap of snow swept in from the Atlantic on December 26th, dumping 25.8 inches; two feet of it came down in 24 hours, causing airports to cancel flights, while the Long Island Rail Road was forced to suspend service later that evening. All told, 80 died from the blizzard, including 55 from the eight Mid-Atlantic States.

New England, too, usually bears the brunt of ``Old Man Winter’’, never more so than in the blustery winter of 1978, when on February 6th and 7th, 29 New Englanders were reported dead and 339 houses destroyed. 27 inches of snow was reported at Logan International Airport with gusts of wind measured as high as 110 miles an hour.

Hockey fans were stranded for three days at the Boston Garden, surviving largely on hot dogs and free coffee; one man was reported dead after leaving his stranded car, just west of Boston; and in other disturbing report, a five-year old girl was washed out to sea by the towering tides in the South Shore suburb of Scituate. All told, Massachusetts and New Hampshire incurred $300 million in damages.

And the one people still talk about, the ``Blizzard of the Century’’ took place in March, 1993, when record snow assaulted the southern Mid-Atlantic States from Alabama to Massachusetts. 170 people were reported dead with property damage as high as $1.6 billion.

Much of Eastern and Southeastern Kentucky was covered with up to 30 inches of snow, making it a record for single day’s snowfall; Syracuse alone received more than three feet of snow; and in Gordon County, Ga, west of Atlanta, 24 carpet mill facilities collapsed, unable to withstand the heavy weight of the snow. 50 tornadoes additionally swept through Florida at one of the worst times, as the Sunshine State will still trying to recover from the ravages of Hurricane Andrew.

The last major snowstorm, not so long ago, was the chilling ``Blizzard of 1996’’ that descended on the eastern United States and was responsible for well over 100 deaths.

The storm began on January 6th and didn’t let up until January 8th. Philadelphia received 31 inches of snow; 27.8 inches fell in Newark, New Jersey; and 14.4 inches in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Snowshoe Mountain Ski Resort in West Virginia, meanwhile, reported receiving 48 inches of snow. Even U.S. government operations in Washington D.C. were closed for a week The ``Blizzard of 1996’’ caused $3 billion in damages and contributed to  187 deaths, according to the meteorology department at Penn State University.

So let’s all just cross our frost bitten fingers that when ``Old Man Winter’’ does decide to make his presence known that he blows right out of town without setting any major records.

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]

7 Things to Know About Windows 7

After hitting the market on Thursday, Microsoft’s new operating system, Windows 7, seems to have struck gold. Early reviews are raving about Windows 7 being faster, more secure, and simpler to use than its predecessor, Windows Vista.

So confident about its new operating system, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer expects the company will sell 300 million Windows-based PC’s this year.

Other features getting the thumbs up is the ability for users to watch live television on their PC (though a TV turner is required), receiving live primetime content from CBS, and its Kindle e-book reader, allowing users to read books and articles by flipping pages with a touch-screen.

Seven other features to know about Windows 7, include:

1.) New search engine uses new and improved algorithms, which ranks results based on relevance. Results appear highlighted with snippets of file content. The search engine additionally comes equipped with a query builder, which allows you to narrow your search, such as by date or document.

2.) Windows 7 features an automatic trouble shooting platform. Go to the ``Start’’ menu, and type: ``fix or troubleshoot’’, which then automatically launches a wizard with suggestions on how you can fix the problem without having to wait for a tech rep on the phone.

3.) For the visually impaired, Windows 7 has a magnifier which allows users to enlarge the whole screen or just parts of your text

4.) With the Windows 7 ``Aero Peek’’ feature, if users hover their mouse over the far-right side of the Windows Taskbar, all open windows become transparent, so you can easily see your desktop

5.)  Windows 7 has dramatically improved Windows speech recognition, allowing users to dictate an email into your program by speaking the recipients name along with the content of your message.

6.) With the ``Windows Touch’’ feature, instead of pointing and clicking, Windows 7 allows you just to tap on an item (much like an ATM machine) to select the item your interested in. The ``Start’’ menu is also touch-friendly with bigger icons. And pictures can be arranged with your fingers in your photo album.
With Explorer 8, users can also scroll down a web page by just using their fingers.
NOTE: The ``Windows Touch’’ feature is only available on specific touch-enabled PC’s

7.) Windows 7 has incorporated new blogging material which allows the sharing of photos and videos on number of top blogging services, including Windows Live, Wordpress, Blogger, LiveJournal, and Typepad
 
***
7 Fast Facts about Windows 7:

1.) Users from more than 113 countries downloaded the Windows 7 beta version

2.) There are 50 new fonts in Windows 7

3.) Windows 7 comes with 12 background wallpapers, seven Windows Aero themes, six character wallpapers, six scenes and unlimited downloads

4.) Windows 7 is available in more than 45,000 retailers worldwide on new PCs in 14 different languages: English, Spanish, Japanese, German, French, Italian, Dutch, Russian, Polish, Brazilian Portuguese, Korean, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese and Chinese (Hong Kong)

5.) Twenty-seven new TV ads were developed for Windows 7 across the U.S., Canada, U.K., France, Germany and Australia.

6.)  More than 2,600 customers participated in user research and usability studies for Windows 7; another 16,000 online interviews were conducted to help identify, test and validate scenarios and features for Windows 7.

7.) More than a billion people around the world use Windows every day,

7 Shortcuts in Windows 7:

1.) Windows icon (on keyboard) + SPACEBAR (hold keys) = Reveals the desktop

2.) SHIFT + click on taskbar icon = Launches a new instance of a program

3.)  In Explorer: ALT + P = Show/Hide Preview Pane

4.) Windows icon (on keyboard) + T=Brings focus to the first item in the task bar. Press again to cycle through each item.

5.) Middle Mouse button + click on TASKBAR thumbnail = closes the window.

6.) Shift + Windows icon (on keyboard) + Arrow = Moves the window to other displays.

7.)  Accessibility: a.) Windows icon (on keyboard) + + = Zoom in; b.) Windows icon + - = Zoom out

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]

 

Cleft Lip Advertising: Unsettling Yes, But Effective

        While living in New York between 1998 and 2000, I remember riding the subways and looking at advertisements of battered women plastered on the walls.
        These ads were virtually impossible to ignore, of women with black and blue marks, eyes pushed close, bloodied scars and discolored incisions tarnishing their faces.
        In fact, several passengers frequently complained (as only New Yorkers can) with crime, aggression, and mayhem all around them, why they were being forced to look at battered victims on their journey to work as well.
        Initially, I agreed with that sentiment, until I realized the unsettling images was the whole purpose of the advertising campaign: to make you uncomfortable enough, and upset you enough to trigger contributions in helping wipe out an overlooked crime against humanity that needed New Yorker�s undivided attention.
        I have no idea how effective the battered women�s campaign was. I�m guessing it was successful; given the shock value packed a lot of punch.
        If you�re an online news junkie, you can�t help but notice there are some rather disturbing ads being displayed, usually on the right-hand side of your computer screen, showing babies with mangled upper-lips, openings in the upper roof of their mouths, exposed teeth, or worse�no teeth at all.
        These are typically pictures of babies born with a birth defect, commonly referred to as the cleft lip and palate (CLP), which occurs with one in every 600 babies born in the U.S. or about 6,800 babies a year, according to Morgan Kathryn Gregson, Foundation Administrator for the Cleft Palate Foundation.  
        Research shows CLP is linked to ethnicity, affecting one in 500 babies among Asians, Hispanics, and Native Americans, while one out of every 800 are Caucasians, and one out of 1200 are African-Americans. 
        China and India, based on the sheer volume of their rapidly growing populations, registers the highest number of babies born with these birth defects. The average cost of plastic surgery in the United States to repair a cleft lip is $5,000, according to the website of Operation Smile, but through the generosity of corporate donations, surgery can cost as little as $245. The cost of surgeries in developing countries is roughly the same ($250), but because most governments don�t consider CLP to be a big enough health concern, and due to families being considerably poorer than in the U.S., many children simply go untreated.  On average, babies born with CLP in the U.S. are treated within the first three months after being born.
        Opinions vary why children are afflicted with CLP, but the most common causes cited by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stems from a combination of genes, smoking during pregnancy, poor nutritional habits, and a sudden change in medications.
        The ads of babies (primarily from Africa) most online readers are seeing is from a campaign sponsored by The SmileTrain , a non-profit organization, whose website claims to be the ``best managed cost-effective charity in the world for treating clefts.��
        When I asked Priscilla Ma if SmileTrain receives any complaints about the disturbing nature of these ads, the Senior Marketing Manager conceded, without disclosing how many, they have received a fair amount of grumbling on how the ads are indeed unsettling, with many offering suggestions how they could be better promoted with a softer approach.
        When questioned about SmileTrain's campaign, Gregson from CPF commented they're not in total agreement with SmileTrain�s ``shock value�� advertising campaign either.
        ``The tactic does seem to be beneficial in the fundraising world as SmileTrain makes a lot of money from their campaigns. ``Oftentimes, Gregson explained, to repair the cleft, the individual may need more than 10 surgeries.  ``The quick fix that groups like SmileTrain provide is an important piece of the process. `` CPF just believes that more must be done.  Apart from the surgeries, speech therapy, esteem development, and dental work must also be addressed.��
        Whether such ``shock ads�� are disturbing to some readers, or enlighting to others, I guess we all can learn to get through an online news article with images of babies with mangled lips flickering in the corner of our eyes, if it helps address a growing but often overlooked health concern.

-Bill Lucey
[email protected]

July 31, 2008

 

 

Food For Thought: Why Are Groceries So Expensive?

            Like everyone else, I keep reading about the worldwide food crisis and the recent rise in food prices in the United States, but it wasn�t until recently that it occurred to me what a huge impact it�s having on my wallet. And mind you, I�m single without any little tykes to feed.
        Imagine what a family with a whole soccer team of children to feed must be going through.
        Over the last few Sunday�s (my shopping day), I�ve noticed I can�t seem to pass through the checkout line without coughing up around $100, easily $20-$25 more than I normally pay.
        The first few times, I thought I must have been tossing a few extras in my shopping cart that I don�t normally buy.
The problem is: I�m a regimented shopper; I buy the same items week after week. So it hit me like a tidal wave, recently, how the food crisis has really hit home.
         Over the past year in the United States, food prices have shot up about 5 percent, more than double from the previous 10 year rate. Currently, annual food price inflation is running at 3 percent; the highest since the 1990's when it stood at 5.8 percent, according to Mike Walden, economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics of  North Carolina State University..
        Peter Timmer, meanwhile, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, USA, said the last time the United States witnessed such a dramatic increase in food prices was in 1973-74, when there was a worldwide food crisis; and before that during the 1951 Korean War commodity boom.
       Another alarming piece of data I learned: world market prices for major food commodities, such as grain and vegetable oils have risen to more than 60 percent from where they stood two years ago
         So I did a little investigating to get to the bottom of this recent climb in my grocery bill, to find out what�s at the root cause of it.
         My findings:
� The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirms pretty much what we already know; which is, food is projected to increase 4.5 to 5.5 percent, as retailers continue to pass on higher commodity and energy costs to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. 
� Don�t look now, but the commodities expected to increase the most, include poultry, fats and oils, processed fruits and vegetables, sugars and sweets, cereals and bakery products, according to the latest projections compiled by the Consumer Price Index. (CPI).
        What�s causing this shocking spike in commodities?
        According to a May, 2008 report issued by the Economic Research Service of the USDA, global consumption of meat has been growing more rapidly than consumption of grains and oilseed. Between 1985 and 1990, the USDA reports, production of beef, pork, chicken and turkey has risen more than 3 percent annually
         Added to this, rapid economic growth in China and India, which accounts for 40 percent of the world's population, seeking to add more protein to their diet, has accelerated the demand for agriculture products; while an increase in petroleum in developing countries, dating back to 1999, has significantly contributed to rising oil prices. Oil imports of China alone, for example, has grown 20 percent from 166 million barrels in 1996 to 1.06 billion barrels in 2006
         The energy crisis, of course, goes hand-in-hand with increased distribution and transportation costs. More importantly, as the U.S. dollar began to depreciate in 2002 and lost value relative to the currency of importing countries, the depreciation of the dollar raised prices; while the increase in global demand for oil, (due to rapid growth in developing countries), put further strains on the world prices of crude oil; so that by 2004, oil prices began to rise more rapidly than previous years.
        And according to Edmund Estes from the Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University, mandated use and tax incentives for biofuels (corn for ethanol and biodiesel for soybeans) has increased demand and price for coarse grains, which includes wheat, corn, and soybeans. ``Price increases for coarse grains have a profound impact on all prices since they are the foundation ingredient for many other foods'', Professor Estes points out.
        Acquiring water for agriculture use is becoming more difficult due to the increased expense of gravity-flow irrigation systems; and another often overlooked demand for agriculture products and energy is attributable to the rising worldwide population, which has increased by 75 million or 1.1 percent a year, despite the downward trend since the 1970's
         Adverse world-wide weather conditions is yet another factor attributable to the food crisis, according to the 2007 data from USDA. Northern Europe, for example, witnessed a dry spring; Southeast Europe went through a drought; for the second consecutive year, the Ukraine and Russia experienced similar droughts; large swaths of the United States, had crops and yield wiped out due to multi-day freeze; Canada went through a hot and dry summer, resulting in lower yields for wheat, barley and rapeseed; Northwest Africa suffered a drought in key wheat and barley growing areas; Turkey had a drought that reduced yields in it nonirrigated production areas; Australia recently withstood another drought, for the third year in a row, triggering low grain yields with exports plummeting; and Argentina endured a late freeze that was quickly compounded by a drought, reducing corn and barley yields
         If you have any doubts whether we�re in a worldwide food crisis, look no further than the tumultuous riots in some of the more low-income food-deficit countries, including: Guinea, Niger, Ethiopia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Haiti, Indonesia, Morocco and Senegal. More controlled demonstrations have taken place with millers and bakers in Malaysia, in Indonesia over soybeans and meats, meat marketers in Pakistan; while Peruvian farmers blockaded rail lines, protesting rising fertilizer costs; and the National Labor Federation in South Africa demonstrated against spiraling food and electricity prices
         But there is a silver lining as we head into the July 4th weekend
        Compared with the rest of the world, citizens of the United States who spend 10 percent of their disposable income on food, according to the USDA, has not been as severely impacted by the food crisis, at least according to Professor Edes, who informs me Japanese residents spend 13 percent of their income on food, France spends 14 percent, Mexico 21 percent, China 28 percent, and in India  a staggering 40 percent. In addition, fuel often exceeds more than $9.00 a gallon in most of Europe.
        -Bill Lucey
         [email protected]

Guns N' Justices: Welcome To The Jungle

        In a contentious split decision (5-4) on Thursday, The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the constitution does not permit `` the absolute prohibition of handguns held and used for self-defense in the home��, according to Justice Anthony Scalia writing for the majority.
        Scalia in affirming the Second Amendment (originally ratified in 1791), which states that a ``well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed�� was quick to point out the decision won't overturn handgun restrictions to the mentally ill, felons, and the bans already in place in government building and schools.
        Ever since the historic decision was handed down, however, the floodgates by pro-gun activists, particularly the National Rifle Association (NRA) have opened up; with plans for legal challenges in Chicago (where ever since 1982, it�s illegal to possess a handgun within city limits) and San Francisco (where those living in public housing are restricted from purchasing hand guns), including a host of other suburbs, threatening similar action.
        The problem so many are having with this decision and the hazy interpretation of the Second Amendment is how the right to bear arms is interpreted by hunters, and law abiding citizens (protecting themselves from assault) with euphoria; and utter fear by others citizens worried that the streets of some our major urban centers might turn into a vignette of Al Pacino�s Scarface.
        In addition to the concern of handgun restrictions being reversed in the District of Columbia, Chicago, and San Francisco, The Brady Campaign website reports, other states, including South Carolina, Tennessee, Nevada, Florida and Louisiana, have ``virtually no laws in place that stop firearm trafficking or prevent dangerous people from gaining easy access to dangerous weapons.''
        I�ll leave it to the legal scholars and the George Will�s of the world to rhapsodize about the brilliance of the Second Amendment in how it preserves our constitutional heritage to own and possess firearms, but for someone like myself who not so long ago had the barrel of a handgun pointing at them on a dimly lit street in downtown Fort Lauderdale, I can only look at the frightening facts about handguns in America, and wonder whether the Supreme Court might have given license to urban warfare.

        Just consider these facts:

� In the book, The Culture of Violence, the authors point out in 1960, only 19 percent of homicides could be traced to handguns; by 1990, the figure leaped to 69 percent.

� The John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, reports firearms are used in more than 30 homicides per day in the United States.

� According to The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, in 2004, almost eight young people aged 19 and under were killed a day in gun homicides, suicides and unintentional shootings in the United States.

� Also from the Brady Campaign, in 2005, 30,694 people in the United States died from firearm-related deaths � 12,352 were murdered; 17,002 killed themselves; 789 were accidents

� According to the U.S. Department of Justice, of the 10,100, firearm deaths in 2005, 7,543 were committed by handguns, comprising 87.3 percent of homicides

� The U.S. Department of Justice additionally reports in 2005, 55 percent of homicides were committed with handguns, 16 percent with other guns, 14 percent with knives, 5 percent with blunt objects, and 11 percent with other weapons.

� Phillip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig  writing in the 2006 Journal of Policy Analysis and Management report 30,136 Americans died by gunfire in 2003, a statistic which includes homicide, suicide, and accident

� According to the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, in 2004, firearms were used to murder 56 people in Australia, 184 people in Canada, 73 people in England and Wales, 5 people in New Zealand, and 37 people in Sweden. A small number when you consider in the United States, firearms in the same year were used to murder 11,344

� In a 2005 report issued by the Israeli Police, the incidence of investigations into murders and attempted murders was 2.5 for every 100,000 people; in the Netherlands, by comparison, it was 11.3, Italy was 3.8, France 3.5, Denmark 3.4, Germany 3.0, Switzerland 2.9, and Spain 2.8. Slovakia, the Czech republic, Austria and Greece were lower than Israel (ranging from 2.1 to 2.3), according to Gabriella Blum, Assistant Professor of Law from Harvard University

        Despite the gloomy outlook of handguns and the danger they pose, there has  been significant progress made since President John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Bobby Kennedy were killed by gunfire.

    Among them:

� The 1968 Gun Control Act outlawed gun purchasers of convicted felons, fugitives, minors, individuals with a history of mental illness, those dishonorably discharged from the military and illegal aliens. In addition, mail-order sales of firearms, such as the rifle acquired by Lee Harvey Oswald have been banned.

� The 1994 Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, among other stipulations, requires background checks of prospective buyers, which the latest research shows has denied 3 percent of handguns to potential buyers.

� New Jersey requires potential gun buyers to undergo an extensive background check by the police, including fingerprinting.

� California ranks first in the nation in implementing mandatory background checks on all firearm purchases, through a �one-handgun-a-month� law to prevent bulk purchases from feeding the illegal gun market.
NOTE: To see how your state measures up, refer to the Brady Campaign state-by-state scorecard

� The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) report due to more demanding licensing requirements, the number of federal firearms licenses, has been sliced from 284,000 in 1993 to 109,000 by 2007.

        Whether the Supreme Court interpreted the original intent of the framers correctly or not; it�s safe to assume the logic of their decision, and what impact it will have on individual states, has opened up a new spirited battle between the NRA and the anti-gun activists for years to come.
            -Bill Lucey
            [email protected]

Holiday Tourists Won't Catch A Break At The Gas Pumps

        Tourists taking to the highways over the Fourth of July weekend, shouldn't expect to catch a break at the gas pumps.
        Tammy Heppner from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) informs me they are expecting prices of gas to increase five to 10 cents from where they are now ($4.08) by the time the holiday weekend rolls around, an assessment consistent with the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects $4.13 a gallon in July and $4.15 in August.
        Heppner, responding through an email, thinks``the lower gasoline demand seen this spring and a decrease in travelers over Memorial Day weekend would suggest that travel would be down versus 2007 for the July 4th weekend.��
        The American Automobile Association (AAA), meanwhile reports today there will be a  decline in the number of Americans traveling during the Fourth of July holiday travel period, the first decline this decade.
        ``Clearly gas prices are continuing to take a toll on the traveler�s budget, but the travel industry is responding, as they have in the past, with discounts, promotions and other incentives to get people traveling this holiday� AAA President and CEO Robert L. Darbelnet wrote through a press release. �For instance travelers should look out for free gas card offerings, breakfast promotions, kids-eat-free deals, car rental discounts and, of course, always ask about AAA member discounts.�
        Other highlights from the AAA Press Release:
        1.) AAA projects 40.45 million Americans will still travel during the July 4th holiday weekend, down 1.3 percent, or nearly 550,000 Americans, from the 41 million who traveled last year
        2.) Approximately 4.54 million Americans (11 percent of holiday travelers) expect to travel by airplane, a 2.3 percent decrease from the 4.64 million who flew last year. Nearly 1.7 million plan to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation

        And for you nostalgia buffs wondering how much gasoline cost at the pumps in previous years, consider that 10 years ago, gas averaged $1.04 per gallon on July 6th, 1998; and only three years ago, consumers were averaging $2.18 at the pumps on July 4th, 2005, according to the EIA historical data
        Maybe John McCain and Barack Obama will strike a cord with voters if they slip on one of those old Texaco suits and become full-service attendants over the holiday weekend.
       -Bill Lucey
         [email protected]