Despite Russian troops still controlling two Georgian cities, hostilities seem to have cooled in the Caucasus, when Russian President Dmitri A. Medvedev signed a cease-fire agreement on Saturday, a day after Georgia president, Mikheil Saakashvili, agreed to the principles of the basic agreement.
Now the real war has begun.
The East-West war, that is, between Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (the real head of the Russian government), and George W. Bush to see who gains the upper-hand in Russia�s own backyard in the coming months ahead.
While Russia has largely been branded the Evil Empire by the western press after storming the disputed territories of South Ossetia, a day after Georgia attempted to bring the runaway province under its control, it did mark a turning point in East-West relations in that Russia refused to allow the United States any more sphere of influence in the east.
Since the fall of Communism in 1991, Russia has being losing its grip of control in the region, with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all former Soviet Republics, granted membership into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. And now with Georgia and the Ukraine hoping also to be absorbed into NATO, Russia felt the time was right to draw a line in the sand and reassert its influence.
Georgia, which has a pipeline that carries Caspian crude oil to western markets by skirting Russia, is of great strategic importance to the United States.
The Bush administration, in particular Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov have been engaged in a war of words lately, about who was the villain or aggressor in this week-long battle, but the real question being asked is if the United States has the military might, being bogged down as they are in Iraq and Afghanistan, to be flexing their muscles at anyone.
While the United States gave the Georgian president every indication they were solidly behind their offensive, when it came right down to it, the U.S. was nowhere to be found when the former Soviet Republic found itself overmatched by the Russian machine in Tskhinvali
But the Bush administration's slow response or empty promises to government�s seeking to break free of Russian control, is nothing new, at least according to Blair Ruble, Director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who thinks the U.S�s slow response ``conforms to a larger US policy pattern that is at least a half-century old of urging people toward rebellion but not following through when the chips are on the table. Just ask the Hungarians about 1956.��
Another reason cited by Kremlin watchers for the slow response to aiding Georgia, stems from the administration needing Russia to participate in sanctions against Iran, and more importantly, not angering Russia enough that they would resort to selling Iran weapons, particularly S-300 air defense system�s.
So while Russia might be thought of as the aggressor, and the big bad wolf of the east, it did show the west that it�s still a power (not a superpower by any means) but a mighty force nonetheless, and it wasn�t about to be rolled over by NATO�s trendy eastward expansion without putting up a fight.
And in the irony of ironies, with the United States overextended militarily, in the throes of an energy crisis, and the specter of a belligerent Iran just down the road, the west may need Russia more than Russia needs the west.
So a war of words critical of Russia is about all the U.S. military budget will allow for these days.
Footnotes about the Russian/Georgian conflict
� Georgia was ruled by Russia for most of the two centuries preceding the breakup of the Soviet Union.
� Georgia president, Mikheil Saakashvili, a graduate of Columbia University Law School, was once spotted, surrounded by a throng of onlookers in the corridor of JD Hall having his picture taken alongside a portrait of Franklin D. Roosevelt.
� Russia�s offensive into South Ossetia�s has been its first war against another state since World War II.
� Georgia gained full independence in 1991
� More than 8,000 Georgian service people have studied on American personnel training programs.
� Over the past four years, Georgia�s militarily budget has increased substantially. In 2008, it will reach $1 billion.
� The United States has contributed nonreturnable loans to Georgia totaling $40.6 million under the "Military Aid to Foreign States for Military Needs" program.
� To aid victims of the conflict, the United States has sent two cargo planes carrying $1.2 million worth of sleeping bags, cots, medical supplies, including syringes and surgical supplies; while the European Union has contributed $1.5 million in fast-track aid
� Georgia�s population is 4.4 million; South Ossetia�s population stands at between 50-70,000 people.
� When the offensive started, South Ossetia had only 2,500 fighters to contend with 7,500 surging Georgian troops.
� The Wall Street Journal reports the Russian military has increased its budget from $7 billion in the late 1990�s to $35 billion today.
� According to a poll released by the
� Human Rights Watch has uncovered evidence of Russia aircraft using cluster bombs in Georgia, which have killed 11 civilians. In May 2008, 107 nations agreed to ban cluster munitions. Russia never participated in the international agreement.
� The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees reports nearly 100,000 people have been uprooted by the conflict.
� Though casualties have yet to be independently verified, Russian and South Ossetia officials report approximately two-thousand people have died in the conflict
Websites to keep in mind:
South Ossetia Fact Sheet (U.S. State Department)
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia
Embassy of the United States (Georgia)
Embassy of the Russian Federation
South Ossetia (Global Security)
Q & A: Conflict in Ossetia (From Human Rights Watch)
Maps
Maps of Georgia (University of Texas at Austin)
Situation in Georgia (Conflict Map from Reliefweb)
Scholarly Analysis
Columbia University Experts on Georgia and Russia
Brookings Institution
Kennan Institute
Carnegie Moscow Center for International Peace
News Analysis
Russia Today
Georgian Times
Crisis in Georgia (Radio Free Europe)
Eurasianet.org
Georgia/South Ossetia (Reuters)
Committee to Protect Journalists (Journalists Killed)
International News Search Engine
-Bill Lucey
August 16, 2008
[email protected]
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