According to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, voter turnout for the 2008 presidential primaries was 30.3 percent of eligible voters, the highest it�s been since 1972, when 30.9 percent voted in the primaries.
These numbers shouldn�t be surprising. We�ve been hearing repeatedly during the primary bus tour how voters were turning out in record numbers. And the reason shouldn�t be a surprise either. 2008, after all, was a historic election: The first African-American and the first woman were competing (tooth-and-nail) to see who would be the first nominee on a major political ticket to run for the nation�s highest office.
And the stakes were never higher.
The latest Quinnipiac University Poll shows 67 percent of respondents disapproving of the way George W. Bush handled the war in Iraq; the country is in the throes of a recession, despite not all agreeing we�re in a recession; if economist Robert Reich writes, as he has on his blog, that we are indeed in a recession, then that�s good enough for me. Gas prices may climb to $4.50 a gallon by July 4th, and the housing crisis has never been more frightful. There were a reported 243,353 foreclosures in April, representing a four percent increase from the previous month, and nearly a 65 percent increase from April 2007, according to RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties.
So it only stands to reason that the surge in voting turnout should continue in the general election, where pocket book issues and an unpopular war will reign supreme.
Donald Green, Professor of Political Science at Yale University, thinks that ``turnout is likely to be strong this fall, in part because voting research suggests, voting is a habit-forming activity. Vote in the spring, and you're more likely to vote in the fall, too.��
But not so fast.
Not all research supports that. Curtis Gans, Director for the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, points out that although 1972 had a record high voter turnout during the primaries; it was also the year registering one of the ``sharpest declines'' of voters during the general election since World War II.
And while conceding voter turnout in the 2008 general election is likely to be high, since voters historically head to the polls during economic downturns, Mr. Gans observed that `` it is possible that very conservative Republicans will not see McCain as one of their own and stay home. ``It is possible that some Republicans who are hostile to the war but can't bring themselves to vote Democratic will stay home. ``It is possible, Gans went on to write through an email that ``some of the white working class that Obama was able to reach in Wisconsin, Missouri, Maryland and Virginia but was unable to reach after he made his "bitter" remarks and Sen. Clinton turned those remarks into a race and class issue will also stay home.��
I remember vividly during the 1980 presidential election, the running joke was Americans were more interested in who shot JR (JR Ewing of the popular night-time soap Dallas) than they were in whether Reagan or Carter would be elected. Only 53.2 percent of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 1980 presidential election. Voter turnout, by comparison, was over 65 percent in 1960; 61.9 percent in 1968; and in 2004 it was 60.9 percent.
I don't think voting turnout in this year's general election will fall short of expecations the way it did in 1972.
Whether one considers Barack Obama to be Abraham Lincoln, Mahatma Gandhi, and JFK all wrapped into one, or rather, a barrier to stamping out Al Qaeda, promoting a reckless withdrawal from Iraq, and just another tax-and-spend liberal, it�s hard to imagine voters staying away from the polls and not participating in deciding whether the United States will have its first black president in its 232-year history.
-Bill Lucey
[email protected]
These numbers shouldn�t be surprising. We�ve been hearing repeatedly during the primary bus tour how voters were turning out in record numbers. And the reason shouldn�t be a surprise either. 2008, after all, was a historic election: The first African-American and the first woman were competing (tooth-and-nail) to see who would be the first nominee on a major political ticket to run for the nation�s highest office.
And the stakes were never higher.
The latest Quinnipiac University Poll shows 67 percent of respondents disapproving of the way George W. Bush handled the war in Iraq; the country is in the throes of a recession, despite not all agreeing we�re in a recession; if economist Robert Reich writes, as he has on his blog, that we are indeed in a recession, then that�s good enough for me. Gas prices may climb to $4.50 a gallon by July 4th, and the housing crisis has never been more frightful. There were a reported 243,353 foreclosures in April, representing a four percent increase from the previous month, and nearly a 65 percent increase from April 2007, according to RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties.
So it only stands to reason that the surge in voting turnout should continue in the general election, where pocket book issues and an unpopular war will reign supreme.
Donald Green, Professor of Political Science at Yale University, thinks that ``turnout is likely to be strong this fall, in part because voting research suggests, voting is a habit-forming activity. Vote in the spring, and you're more likely to vote in the fall, too.��
But not so fast.
Not all research supports that. Curtis Gans, Director for the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, points out that although 1972 had a record high voter turnout during the primaries; it was also the year registering one of the ``sharpest declines'' of voters during the general election since World War II.
And while conceding voter turnout in the 2008 general election is likely to be high, since voters historically head to the polls during economic downturns, Mr. Gans observed that `` it is possible that very conservative Republicans will not see McCain as one of their own and stay home. ``It is possible that some Republicans who are hostile to the war but can't bring themselves to vote Democratic will stay home. ``It is possible, Gans went on to write through an email that ``some of the white working class that Obama was able to reach in Wisconsin, Missouri, Maryland and Virginia but was unable to reach after he made his "bitter" remarks and Sen. Clinton turned those remarks into a race and class issue will also stay home.��
I remember vividly during the 1980 presidential election, the running joke was Americans were more interested in who shot JR (JR Ewing of the popular night-time soap Dallas) than they were in whether Reagan or Carter would be elected. Only 53.2 percent of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 1980 presidential election. Voter turnout, by comparison, was over 65 percent in 1960; 61.9 percent in 1968; and in 2004 it was 60.9 percent.
I don't think voting turnout in this year's general election will fall short of expecations the way it did in 1972.
Whether one considers Barack Obama to be Abraham Lincoln, Mahatma Gandhi, and JFK all wrapped into one, or rather, a barrier to stamping out Al Qaeda, promoting a reckless withdrawal from Iraq, and just another tax-and-spend liberal, it�s hard to imagine voters staying away from the polls and not participating in deciding whether the United States will have its first black president in its 232-year history.
-Bill Lucey
[email protected]
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